A mathematical model to assess the impact of testing and isolation compliance on the transmission of COVID-19

Shasha Gao; Pant Binod; Chidozie Williams Chukwu; Theophilus Kwofie; Salman Safdar; Lora Newman; Seoyun Choe; Bimal Kumar Datta; Wisdom Kwame Attipoe; Wenjing Zhang; P. van den Driessche

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2023.04.005

A mathematical model to assess the impact of testing and isolation compliance on the transmission of COVID-19

Shasha Gao
, Pant Binod
, Chidozie Williams Chukwu
, Theophilus Kwofie
, Salman Safdar
, Lora Newman
, Seoyun Choe
, Bimal Kumar Datta
, Wisdom Kwame Attipoe
, Wenjing Zhang
, P. van den Driessche

Mathematical Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

29 Scopus citations

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged global health and national economies worldwide. Testing and isolation are effective control strategies to mitigate the transmission of COVID-19, especially in the early stage of the disease outbreak. In this paper, we develop a deterministic model to investigate the impact of testing and compliance with isolation on the transmission of COVID-19. We derive the control reproduction number R_C, which gives the threshold for disease elimination or prevalence. Using data from New York State in the early stage of the disease outbreak, we estimate R_C=7.989. Both elasticity and sensitivity analyses show that testing and compliance with isolation are significant in reducing R_C and disease prevalence. Simulation reveals that only high testing volume combined with a large proportion of individuals complying with isolation have great impact on mitigating the transmission. The testing starting date is also crucial: the earlier testing is implemented, the more impact it has on reducing the infection. The results obtained here would also be helpful in developing guidelines of early control strategies for pandemics similar to COVID-19.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	427-444
Number of pages	18
Journal	Infectious Disease Modelling
Volume	8
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.04.005
State	Published - Apr 20 2023

Scopus Subject Areas

Health Policy
Infectious Diseases
Applied Mathematics

Keywords

COVID-19
Compliance
Isolation
New York state
Testing

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10.1016/j.idm.2023.04.005

1-s2.0-S2468042723000301-mainFinal published version, 1.9 MBLicense: CC BY-NC-ND

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title = "A mathematical model to assess the impact of testing and isolation compliance on the transmission of COVID-19",

abstract = "The COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged global health and national economies worldwide. Testing and isolation are effective control strategies to mitigate the transmission of COVID-19, especially in the early stage of the disease outbreak. In this paper, we develop a deterministic model to investigate the impact of testing and compliance with isolation on the transmission of COVID-19. We derive the control reproduction number RC, which gives the threshold for disease elimination or prevalence. Using data from New York State in the early stage of the disease outbreak, we estimate RC=7.989. Both elasticity and sensitivity analyses show that testing and compliance with isolation are significant in reducing RC and disease prevalence. Simulation reveals that only high testing volume combined with a large proportion of individuals complying with isolation have great impact on mitigating the transmission. The testing starting date is also crucial: the earlier testing is implemented, the more impact it has on reducing the infection. The results obtained here would also be helpful in developing guidelines of early control strategies for pandemics similar to COVID-19.",

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AU - Safdar, Salman

AU - Newman, Lora

AU - Choe, Seoyun

AU - Datta, Bimal Kumar

AU - Attipoe, Wisdom Kwame

AU - Zhang, Wenjing

AU - van den Driessche, P.

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N2 - The COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged global health and national economies worldwide. Testing and isolation are effective control strategies to mitigate the transmission of COVID-19, especially in the early stage of the disease outbreak. In this paper, we develop a deterministic model to investigate the impact of testing and compliance with isolation on the transmission of COVID-19. We derive the control reproduction number RC, which gives the threshold for disease elimination or prevalence. Using data from New York State in the early stage of the disease outbreak, we estimate RC=7.989. Both elasticity and sensitivity analyses show that testing and compliance with isolation are significant in reducing RC and disease prevalence. Simulation reveals that only high testing volume combined with a large proportion of individuals complying with isolation have great impact on mitigating the transmission. The testing starting date is also crucial: the earlier testing is implemented, the more impact it has on reducing the infection. The results obtained here would also be helpful in developing guidelines of early control strategies for pandemics similar to COVID-19.

AB - The COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged global health and national economies worldwide. Testing and isolation are effective control strategies to mitigate the transmission of COVID-19, especially in the early stage of the disease outbreak. In this paper, we develop a deterministic model to investigate the impact of testing and compliance with isolation on the transmission of COVID-19. We derive the control reproduction number RC, which gives the threshold for disease elimination or prevalence. Using data from New York State in the early stage of the disease outbreak, we estimate RC=7.989. Both elasticity and sensitivity analyses show that testing and compliance with isolation are significant in reducing RC and disease prevalence. Simulation reveals that only high testing volume combined with a large proportion of individuals complying with isolation have great impact on mitigating the transmission. The testing starting date is also crucial: the earlier testing is implemented, the more impact it has on reducing the infection. The results obtained here would also be helpful in developing guidelines of early control strategies for pandemics similar to COVID-19.

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A mathematical model to assess the impact of testing and isolation compliance on the transmission of COVID-19

Abstract

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Keywords

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