Advancing Environmental Flows Science: Hindcasting and Forecasting Flow–Ecology Relationships

To advance current environmental flow standards in Texas, we developed field, laboratory, and analytical methods to model recruitment dynamics of indicator species selected to cover a range of population responses to flow variation. Preliminary investigations were conducted in three central Texas river basins to evaluate the feasibility of these methods for formulating and evaluating the state's environmental flow standards. Age analysis allowed back-calculation of dates of fish hatching, mussel recruitment, and tree germination for estimation of temporal variation in recruitment. Recruitment data were then analyzed in relation to flow regime components. Statistical models were derived for flow–recruitment relationships of Shoal Chub Macrhybopsis hyostoma, Smallmouth Buffalo Ictiobus bubalus, threeridge mussel Amblema plicata, and boxelder Acer negundo. The Shoal Chub model was used to hindcast recruitment dynamics in the Brazos River, revealing a decline in recruitment after dam construction. The Smallmouth Buffalo model revealed that strong year-classes were positively associated with springtime pulses of long duration but negatively associated with frequent short-duration pulses. Results for the threeridge mussel were not as easily interpreted, but for all three river basins generally showed weaker recruitment during periods with extreme low and high flows. The boxelder model revealed positive associations between recruitment and high flow components and was used to forecast the probability of germination under five simulated flow regime scenarios, thereby providing an additional means for evaluating the suitability of environmental flow standards. Assessment of how hydrology influences recruitment provides an evidence-based method to hindcast responses to past flow regimes and forecast responses to future flow scenarios, thereby providing a basis for evaluating environmental flow standards and water management options.