TY - JOUR
T1 - An investigation of spatial-temporal patterns and predictions of the coronavirus 2019 pandemic in Colombia, 2020–2021
AU - Tariq, Amna
AU - Chakhaia, Tsira
AU - Dahal, Sushma
AU - Ewing, Alexander
AU - Hua, Xinyi
AU - Ofori, Sylvia K.
AU - Prince, Olaseni
AU - Salindri, Argita D.
AU - Adeniyi, Ayotomiwa Ezekiel
AU - Banda, Juan M.
AU - Skums, Pavel
AU - Luo, Ruiyan
AU - Lara-Díaz, Leidy Y.
AU - Bürger, Raimund
AU - Fung, Isaac Chun Hai
AU - Shim, Eunha
AU - Kirpich, Alexander
AU - Srivastava, Anuj
AU - Chowell, Gerardo
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022.
PY - 2022/3
Y1 - 2022/3
N2 - Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 5,002,387 cases and 127,258 deaths as of October 31, 2021. The aggressive transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 motivate an investigation of COVID-19 at the national and regional levels in Colombia. We utilize the case incidence and mortality data to estimate the transmission potential and gen-erate short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform the public health policies using previously validated mathematical models. The analysis is augmented by the examination of geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 at the departmental level along with the investigation of mobility and social media trends. Overall, the national and regional reproduction numbers show sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pan-demic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Whereas the most recent estimates of reproduction number indicate disease containment, with Rt<1.0 as of October 31, 2021. On the forecasting front, the sub-epidemic model performs best at capturing the 30-day ahead COVID-19 trajectory compared to the Richards and generalized logistic growth model. Nev-ertheless, the spatial variability in the incidence rate patterns across different departments can be grouped into four distinct clusters. As the case incidence surged in July 2020, an increase in mobility patterns was also observed. On the contrary, a spike in the number of tweets indicating the stay-at-home orders was observed in November 2020 when the case incidence had already plateaued, indicating the pandemic fatigue in the country.
AB - Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 5,002,387 cases and 127,258 deaths as of October 31, 2021. The aggressive transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 motivate an investigation of COVID-19 at the national and regional levels in Colombia. We utilize the case incidence and mortality data to estimate the transmission potential and gen-erate short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform the public health policies using previously validated mathematical models. The analysis is augmented by the examination of geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 at the departmental level along with the investigation of mobility and social media trends. Overall, the national and regional reproduction numbers show sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pan-demic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Whereas the most recent estimates of reproduction number indicate disease containment, with Rt<1.0 as of October 31, 2021. On the forecasting front, the sub-epidemic model performs best at capturing the 30-day ahead COVID-19 trajectory compared to the Richards and generalized logistic growth model. Nev-ertheless, the spatial variability in the incidence rate patterns across different departments can be grouped into four distinct clusters. As the case incidence surged in July 2020, an increase in mobility patterns was also observed. On the contrary, a spike in the number of tweets indicating the stay-at-home orders was observed in November 2020 when the case incidence had already plateaued, indicating the pandemic fatigue in the country.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85127694352&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010228
DO - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010228
M3 - Article
C2 - 35245285
AN - SCOPUS:85127694352
SN - 1935-2727
VL - 16
JO - PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
JF - PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
IS - 3
M1 - e0010228
ER -