Bail denied or bail too high? Disentangling cumulative disadvantage by pretrial detention type

Purpose

Defendants can be detained preventively or held in pretrial detention on an unaffordable bail. While prior research concludes that detained defendants face more severe case outcomes than released defendants, it is essential to unpack the differences between defendants denied bail and held on bail. As the latter group would not be detained if they were of more affluent means, they should not face the same cumulative disadvantages of pretrial detention as defendants deemed dangerous and held preventively.

Methods

Using a series of regressions and path models, this paper examines the direct and indirect effects of pretrial detention type on the case processing of over 40,000 detained defendants.

Results

Compared to defendants held on bail, defendants denied bail are less likely to plead guilty and be sentenced to jail but more likely to be sentenced to prison and receive longer sentences. Both groups face a similar likelihood of conviction and charge reduction. Indirect effects via adjudication decisions further contribute to sentencing disparity.

Conclusions

Both defendants denied bail and held on bail experience cumulative disadvantage, albeit in different ways. Findings contribute to the growing concerns surrounding cash bail in the United States.