Election Outcomes and Economic Conditions: An Application of a Logit Model

In this paper the author examines the impact of macroeconomic conditions on the probability of the incumbent party winning a gubernatorial election. Using a sample of 265 gubernatorial elections held during the 1970-1988 period, the findings of this study indicate that the incumbent party's probability of victory is not significantly affected by either state or national macroeconomic conditions. The author also finds that neither the unemployment rate nor per capita income growth affect the incumbent party's probability of winning an election.