Forecasting and quantifying the role of vaccination strategies in the 2025 Texas measles outbreak: a modeling and time series analysis approach

In this paper, we present a novel compartmental model to capture the transmission dynamics of measles, incorporating both single- and double-dose vaccination strategies. The model accounts for differential vaccine efficacies between partially and fully vaccinated individuals, providing a more realistic representation of population immunity. To quantify and forecast the future trajectory of measles in Texas, we calibrated our model using the 2025 measles outbreak data from Texas, USA, from January 20 to May 27, 2025. In addition, we employed time series forecasting approaches, Facebook Prophet and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), to predict daily new measles cases. Results from the forecasting analysis reveal that the Prophet model outperformed the GRU model based on standard performance metrics. Both models suggest that measles will persist in Texas with an estimated average of 1-2 (95% CI, 1-2 ), daily new cases per day until August 30, 2025, unless additional public health interventions are implemented. Our findings highlight the importance of achieving and maintaining high vaccination coverage to prevent future outbreaks and mitigate the long-term risk of endemic measles. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and health authorities aiming to strengthen measles control strategies in both endemic and non-endemic regions of Texas, USA.Clinical trialNot applicable.