TY - JOUR
T1 - Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States
AU - Bai, Yuan
AU - Du, Zhanwei
AU - Wang, Lin
AU - Lau, Eric H. Y.
AU - Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai
AU - Holme, Petter
AU - Cowling, Ben
AU - Galvani, Alison
AU - Krug, Robert
AU - Meyers, Lauren Ancel
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). All rights reserved.
PY - 2024/2
Y1 - 2024/2
N2 - We evaluated the population-level benefits of expanding treatment with the antiviral drug Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ ritonavir) in the United States for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infections. Using a multiscale mathematical model, we found that treating 20% of symptomatic case-patients with Paxlovid over a period of 300 days beginning in January 2022 resulted in life and cost savings. In a low-transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 1.2), this approach could avert 0.28 million (95% CI 0.03–0.59 million) hospitalizations and save US $56.95 billion (95% CI US $2.62–$122.63 billion). In a higher transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 3), the benefits increase, potentially preventing 0.85 million (95% CI 0.36–1.38 million) hospitalizations and saving US $170.17 billion (95% CI US $60.49–$286.14 billion). Our findings suggest that timely and widespread use of Paxlovid could be an effective and economical approach to mitigate the effects of COVID-19.
AB - We evaluated the population-level benefits of expanding treatment with the antiviral drug Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ ritonavir) in the United States for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infections. Using a multiscale mathematical model, we found that treating 20% of symptomatic case-patients with Paxlovid over a period of 300 days beginning in January 2022 resulted in life and cost savings. In a low-transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 1.2), this approach could avert 0.28 million (95% CI 0.03–0.59 million) hospitalizations and save US $56.95 billion (95% CI US $2.62–$122.63 billion). In a higher transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 3), the benefits increase, potentially preventing 0.85 million (95% CI 0.36–1.38 million) hospitalizations and saving US $170.17 billion (95% CI US $60.49–$286.14 billion). Our findings suggest that timely and widespread use of Paxlovid could be an effective and economical approach to mitigate the effects of COVID-19.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85183469312&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3201/eid3002.230835
DO - 10.3201/eid3002.230835
M3 - Article
SN - 1080-6040
VL - 30
SP - 262
EP - 269
JO - Emerging Infectious Diseases
JF - Emerging Infectious Diseases
IS - 2
ER -
