TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatially refined time-varying reproduction numbers of SARS-CoV-2 in Arkansas and Kentucky and their relationship to population size and public health policy, March – November 2020
AU - Politis, Maria D.
AU - Hua, Xinyi
AU - Ogwara, Chigozie A.
AU - Davies, Margaret R.
AU - Adebile, Temitayo M.
AU - Sherman, Maya P.
AU - Zhou, Xiaolu
AU - Chowell, Gerardo
AU - Spaulding, Anne C.
AU - Fung, Isaac Chun Hai
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Elsevier Inc.
PY - 2022/4
Y1 - 2022/4
N2 - Purpose: To examine the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, for COVID-19 in Arkansas and Kentucky and investigate the impact of policies and preventative measures on the variability in Rt. Methods: Arkansas and Kentucky county-level COVID-19 cumulative case count data (March 6-November 7, 2020) were obtained. Rt was estimated using the R package ‘EpiEstim’, by county, region (Delta, non-Delta, Appalachian, non-Appalachian), and policy measures. Results: The Rt was initially high, falling below 1 in May or June depending on the region, before stabilizing around 1 in the later months. The median Rt for Arkansas and Kentucky at the end of the study were 1.15 (95% credible interval [CrI], 1.13, 1.18) and 1.10 (95% CrI, 1.08, 1.12), respectively, and remained above 1 for the non-Appalachian region. Rt decreased when facial coverings were mandated, changing by -10.64% (95% CrI, -10.60%, -10.70%) in Arkansas and -5.93% (95% CrI, -4.31%, -7.65%) in Kentucky. The trends in Rt estimates were mostly associated with the implementation and relaxation of social distancing measures. Conclusions: Arkansas and Kentucky maintained a median Rt above 1 during the entire study period. Changes in Rt estimates allow quantitative estimates of potential impact of policies such as facemask mandate.
AB - Purpose: To examine the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, for COVID-19 in Arkansas and Kentucky and investigate the impact of policies and preventative measures on the variability in Rt. Methods: Arkansas and Kentucky county-level COVID-19 cumulative case count data (March 6-November 7, 2020) were obtained. Rt was estimated using the R package ‘EpiEstim’, by county, region (Delta, non-Delta, Appalachian, non-Appalachian), and policy measures. Results: The Rt was initially high, falling below 1 in May or June depending on the region, before stabilizing around 1 in the later months. The median Rt for Arkansas and Kentucky at the end of the study were 1.15 (95% credible interval [CrI], 1.13, 1.18) and 1.10 (95% CrI, 1.08, 1.12), respectively, and remained above 1 for the non-Appalachian region. Rt decreased when facial coverings were mandated, changing by -10.64% (95% CrI, -10.60%, -10.70%) in Arkansas and -5.93% (95% CrI, -4.31%, -7.65%) in Kentucky. The trends in Rt estimates were mostly associated with the implementation and relaxation of social distancing measures. Conclusions: Arkansas and Kentucky maintained a median Rt above 1 during the entire study period. Changes in Rt estimates allow quantitative estimates of potential impact of policies such as facemask mandate.
KW - Covid-19
KW - Reproduction number
KW - Rural, policy
KW - Sars-cov-2
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85124298653&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.annepidem.2021.12.012
DO - 10.1016/j.annepidem.2021.12.012
M3 - Article
C2 - 35031444
AN - SCOPUS:85124298653
SN - 1047-2797
VL - 68
SP - 37
EP - 44
JO - Annals of Epidemiology
JF - Annals of Epidemiology
ER -
