The Life Cycle of a Pandemic Crisis: SARS Impact on Air Travel

This paper studies the effects of the SARS outbreak on air travel between the US and three destinations; China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. ARIMA models with interventions are used to estimate the timing, depth and shape of SARS impact on international air travel. Links between empirical findings and a conceptual framework for analyzing the life cycle of a crisis are established. The conceptual framework uses situational choice and governmental public relations differences by location to explain the response patterns to the crises. The research finds significant evidence that the impact and life cycle of SARS effect on air travel varies by location. Suggestions are offered for effective ways to minimize damage to tourism for future outbreaks of possible pandemics.