The Politics of Presidential Pardons: Partisan Differences in Modern Clemency Decisions

Objective: We investigate how partisanship, political context, and recipient characteristics relate to presidential pardon behavior. We ask whether Democratic and Republican administrations exhibit unique patterns in the likelihood and timing of pardons across different crime categories. Methods: We analyze presidential pardons issued from 1989 to 2024. Leveraging data on the crimes for which pardons are granted, recipient characteristics, and additional factors, we estimate logit and count models controlling for demographic characteristics, crime type, and political dynamics. We also incorporate interaction terms to examine how partisan differences vary across such contexts. Results: Our results suggest that presidents utilize pardons to advance criminal justice priorities while navigating political constraints. Democratic and Republican administrations behave differently in the likelihood and timing of pardons in particular crime categories. Democrats are more likely to pardon non-Whites, women, and narcotics offenders than Republicans, but are less likely to grant pardons when facing potential electoral threat. As Democratic presidents increase their rhetorical attention to crime, they grow less likely to issue pardons. Conclusions: Our findings speak to issues surrounding executive clemency, issue ownership, criminal justice policy, and partisan governance. These patterns demonstrate that pardons can operate as policy tools shaped by ideological preferences and political constraints.