TY - JOUR
T1 - The Public Health Impact of Paxlovid COVID-19 Treatment in the United States
AU - Bai, Yuan
AU - Du, Zhanwei
AU - Wang, Lin
AU - Lau, Eric H. Y.
AU - Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai
AU - Holme, Petter
AU - Cowling, Ben
AU - Galvani, Alison
AU - Krug, Robert
AU - Meyers, Lauren Ancel
PY - 2023/9/7
Y1 - 2023/9/7
N2 - The antiviral drug Paxlovid has been shown to rapidly reduce viral load. Coupled with vaccination, timely administration of safe and effective antivirals could provide a path towards managing COVID-19 without restrictive non-pharmaceutical measures. Here, we estimate the population-level impacts of expanding treatment with Paxlovid in the US using a multi-scale mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission that incorporates the within-host viral load dynamics of the Omicron variant. We find that, under a low transmission scenario (Re∼1.2) treating 20% of symptomatic cases would be life and cost saving, leading to an estimated 0.26 (95% CrI: 0.03, 0.59) million hospitalizations averted, 30.61 (95% CrI: 1.69, 71.15) thousand deaths averted, and US$52.16 (95% CrI: 2.62, 122.63) billion reduction in health- and treatment-related costs. Rapid and broad use of the antiviral Paxlovid could substantially reduce COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, while averting socioeconomic hardship.
AB - The antiviral drug Paxlovid has been shown to rapidly reduce viral load. Coupled with vaccination, timely administration of safe and effective antivirals could provide a path towards managing COVID-19 without restrictive non-pharmaceutical measures. Here, we estimate the population-level impacts of expanding treatment with Paxlovid in the US using a multi-scale mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission that incorporates the within-host viral load dynamics of the Omicron variant. We find that, under a low transmission scenario (Re∼1.2) treating 20% of symptomatic cases would be life and cost saving, leading to an estimated 0.26 (95% CrI: 0.03, 0.59) million hospitalizations averted, 30.61 (95% CrI: 1.69, 71.15) thousand deaths averted, and US$52.16 (95% CrI: 2.62, 122.63) billion reduction in health- and treatment-related costs. Rapid and broad use of the antiviral Paxlovid could substantially reduce COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, while averting socioeconomic hardship.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Paxlovid
KW - SARS-CoV-2transmission
KW - mathematical model
KW - public health impact
KW - treatment
UR - https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/bee-facpubs/410
U2 - 10.1101/2023.06.16.23288870
DO - 10.1101/2023.06.16.23288870
M3 - Article
JO - medRxiv
JF - medRxiv
ER -
