The Timing of Sea-Level Rise Impacts to Cultural Heritage Sites along the Georgia Coast, USA, through Fine-Grain Ecological Modeling

Large datasets, combined with modeling techniques, provide a quantitative way to estimate when known archaeological sites will be impacted by climatological changes. With over 4,000 archaeological sites recorded on the coast of Georgia, USA, the state provides an ideal opportunity to compare methods. Here, we compare the popular passive bathtub modeling with the dynamic Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) combined with the Marshes Equilibrium Model (MEM). The goal of this effort is to evaluate prior modeling and test the benefits of more detailed ecological modeling in assessing site loss. Our findings indicate that although rough counts of archaeological sites destroyed by sea-level rise (SLR) are similar in all approaches, using the latter two methods provides critical information needed in prioritizing site studies and documentation before irrevocable damages occur. Our results indicate that within the next 80 years, approximately 40% of Georgia's coastal sites will undergo a loss of archaeological context due to wetlands shifting from dry ecological zones to transitional marshlands or submerged estuaries and swamps.