Unraveling dengue dynamics with data calibration from Palu and Jakarta: Optimizing active surveillance and fogging interventions

  • Dipo Aldila
  • , Joseph Páez Chávez
  • , Chidozie W. Chukwu
  • , Athaya Yumna Fathiyah
  • , Juni Wijayanti Puspita
  • , Kartika A.Dimar Setio
  • , Ahmad Fuady
  • , Putri Zahra Kamalia

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Scopus citations

Abstract

Dengue fever is a complex infectious disease driven by multiple factors, including viral dynamics, mosquito behavior, environmental conditions, and human behaviors. The intricate nature of its transmission and outbreaks necessitates an interdisciplinary approach, integrating expertise from fields such as mathematics and public health. In this research, we examine the role of active case finding and mosquito population reduction through fogging in dengue control using a mathematical model approach. Active case finding aims to identify undetected dengue cases, both asymptomatic and symptomatic, which can help prevent further transmission and reduce the likelihood of severe symptoms by enabling earlier treatment. The model was developed using a system of nine-dimensional nonlinear ordinary differential equations. We conducted a mathematical analysis of the equilibria and their stability based on the basic reproduction number (R0). Our analysis shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when R0
Original languageEnglish
Article number115729
JournalChaos, Solitons and Fractals
Volume189
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 2024

Scopus Subject Areas

  • Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
  • Mathematical Physics
  • General Physics and Astronomy
  • Applied Mathematics

Keywords

  • Active surveillance
  • Backward bifurcation
  • Data calibration
  • Dengue
  • Time-dependent fogging

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